Evaluation of plasma immunoglobulin G and BW thresholds for predicting preweaning mortality in commercially raised dairy goat kids

The high preweaning mortality rate is a concerning issue for the commercial dairy industry. In this context, early identification of at-risk individuals can be instrumental. To address this, we conducted a prospective cohort study with the objective of evaluating plasma immunoglobulin G concentration (pIgG-24 h) and initial BW (IBW) measured at 1d old in 363 male dairy kids (Saanen) for predicting preweaning mortality under commercial conditions. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine critical thresholds for pIgG-24 h and IBW. Subsequently, areas under the curve (AUC), sensitivity (Se), and specificity (Sp) were examined to assess the accuracy of these thresholds. Multivariable regressions were used to model odds ratios (OR) for mortality, controlling for confounding effects between IBW and pIgG-24 h. The mean (+/- SD) pIgG-24 h and IBW were 16.4 +/- 9.37 g/L and 4.0 +/- 0.61 kg. Overall mortality <= 14d and <= 42d old was 12% and 21%, respectively. Critical pIgG-24 h thresholds predicting mortality <= 14 d and <= 42 d old were < 10.1 g/L (AUC = 0.74, Se = 59%, and Sp = 82%) and <11.4 g/L (AUC 0.70, Se = 53%, and Sp = 77%), respectively. Kids with pIgG-24 h < 10.1 g/L were six times more likely to die <= 14 d old [OR; 95% CI (6; 3-12)], and kids with pIgG-24 h < 11.4 g/L were four times more likely to die <= 42 d old (4; 2-6). The IBW threshold most linked to mortality <= 14 d was <3.95 kg (AUC 0.60, Se = 59%, and Sp = 61%). However, this association became inconclusive after adjusting for pIgG-24 h differences. Conversely, an IBW of <3.0 kg was associated with notably higher mortality odds within both 14 and 42 d, irrespective of pIgG-24 h levels (10; 3-37, and 4; 1-20, respectively), suggesting that kids with an IBW < 3.0 kg face an increased likelihood of dying before 42 d, irrespectively of their IgG levels. While our findings suggest pIgG-24 h < 11.4 g/L and IBW < 3.0 kg as strong indicators of early mortality risks in male dairy kids, these results require further validation for other systems.