Capacity Determination Model for Flexible Ramping Products Based on Kernel Density Estimation

The high proportion of renewable energy power generation introduces significant risk and challenge to the power grid during actual operation due to its inherent uncertainty. With the upward and downward ramping demands of net load increase significantly between adjacent periods, the power system needs to motivate more kinds of flexible resources to actively provide flexible services through the market mechanism,. The capacity determination model for flexible ramping ancillary service has become one of the hot research issues. Focusing on the research of market mechanism, this paper firstly introduces the definition and function of flexible ramping ancillary service. Secondly according to the composition of capacity demand of climbing products, this paper gives the traditional determination method of flexible ramping ancillary service demand based on normal distribution. On this basis, combined with the directivity, regionality and timeliness of demand capacity, this paper proposes a capacity determination model for flexible ramping products based on nonparametric kernel density estimation. Finally, a typical example is used to compare and analyze the market clearing results in the day-ahead market under different capacity determination methods. The results confirm the efficiency and suitability of the proposed model and method.