InSAR time series and LSTM model to support early warning detection tools of ground instabilities: mining site case studies

Early alarm systems can activate vital precautions for saving lives and the economy threatened by natural hazards and human activities. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) products generate valuable ground motion data with high spatial and temporal resolutions. Integrating the InSAR products and forecasting models make possible to set up early alarm systems to monitor vulnerable areas. This study proposes a technical support to early warning detection tools of ground instabilities using machine learning and InSAR time series that is capable of forecasting regions affected by potential collapses. A long short-term memory (LSTM) model is tailored to predict ground movements in three forecast ranges (i.e., SAR observations): 3, 4, and 5 multistep. A contribution of the proposed strategy is utilizing adjacent time series to decrease the possibility of falsely detecting safe regions as significant movements. The proposed tool offers ground motion-based outcomes that can be interpreted and utilized by experts to activate early alarms to reduce the consequences of possible failures in vulnerable infrastructures, such as mining areas. Three case studies in Spain, Brazil, and Australia, where fatal incidents happened, are analyzed by the proposed early alert detector to illustrate the impact of chosen temporal and spatial ranges. Since most early alarm systems are site dependent, we propose a general tool to be interpreted by experts for activating reliable alarms. The results show that the proposed tool can identify potential regions before collapse in all case studies. In addition, the tool can suggest an optimum selection of InSAR temporal (i.e., number of images) and spatial (i.e., adjacent measurement points) combinations based on the available SAR images and the characteristics of the study area.