Assessing past and future climatic influences on the availability of polar bear maternal denning habitat on Wrangel Island

•Pregnant polar bears den in the central mountains of Wrangel Island, Russia.•Modeled snowdrift habitat did not change in distribution or area from 1980 to 2020.•A temperature increase of 7.6 °C is predicted to decrease den habitat by 50%.•Den habitat is predicted to disappear with a temperature increase ≥13.6 °C.•Despite rising temperatures, snow conditions until ∼2100 may not limit available den habitat.