Simulating the electrical demand variations of air-source heat pumps in Canadian single-family housing

Heat pumps offer an efficient electrification of space heating but can significantly vary the magnitude and duration of house-level electrical demand, especially when replacing fuel-fired heating systems. This paper uses a simulation-based approach to simulate the electrical demand variations of air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) in six Canadian cities (Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, Winnipeg, Vancouver, Whitehorse) when replacing natural gas or electric baseboard heating. Detailed housing models (including a highly zoned model capturing room-based baseboard controls) are combined with a series of custom non-HVAC load profiles and an enhanced data-driven ASHP model to assess the variation that occupancy, climate, and type of heat pump integration can have on electrical demand. ASHPs are shown to increase the magnitude and duration of electrical demand when replacing natural gas furnaces, although selection of climate-appropriate systems (e.g. cold climate units in colder climates) may reduce the magnitude and coincidence of this demand. Where heat pumps replace electric baseboards, HVAC demand may decrease by up to 3.4 kW during ASHP operating periods and remain equal when the ambient temperatures are below the ASHP cutoff. A study of simple mitigation measures through varying temperature setpoints demonstrates the ability of proper controls to reduce electrical demand during high-demand periods.