Prediction of carotid intima media thickness and stiffness in adolescence and young adulthood from four blood pressure parameters and resting heart rate

Objective: Childhood blood pressure (BP) is associated with hard outcomes and intermediate markers of cardiovascular disease several decades later but studies on more short-termed outcomes are scarce and and it is unclear whether different BP parameters are all predictive. This study investigates the association of four BP parameters and resting heart rate (RHR) at age 3 - 17 years with three carotid markers one decade later with population-based data. Design and method: 4,607 14- to 28-year old participants of the nationwide German pediatric cohort KiGGS had semi–automated sonography with measurements of carotid intima media thickness (CIMT), lumen diameter (LD) and distensibility coefficient (DC) at their 11-year follow–up. We investigated associations of both baseline and follow-up systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), pulse pressure (PP) and RHR, with CIMT and LD > = 90th percentile and DC > = 10th percentile in logistic regression models. Percentiles were computed by sex and age. Analyses were adjusted for a cardiovascular risk score from added z-scores of body mass index, triglycerides, total-/HDL-cholesterol-ratio and HbA1c. Results: In longitudinal analyses SBP, DBP, MAP and RHR were significantly associated with all measures of subclinical atherosclerosis 11 years later, with similar, however weak, effect estimates, e.g. an OR of 1.19 (CI 1.09 - 1.31) for a one standard deviation increase in SBP with elevated CIMT. Cross–sectionally, the strongest association was found for MAP with reduced DC (OR 1.76; CI 1.60 - 1.94). For PP not all of these associations were significant. RHR was associated with elevated LD and reduced DC and inversely associated with elevated CIMT. Associations were similar when adjusting for the composite cardiovascular risk score. Conclusions: This study fills a gap between previous findings of an association between childhood BP and adverse effects in the vasculature in mid-adulthood, several decades later, by giving evidence for the association already after one decade. While individual risk prediction based of single BP measurements in this study is only weak, its robustness and consistency over five haemodynamic parameters and three subclinical atherosclerosis measures underscore the importance of preventing high blood pressure already early in the life course.