Land use and environmental quality in ireland over two decades of contrasting agricultural trends

Global awareness and scrutiny of food production systems, including competition for land between agriculture and nature-based solutions to climate change, has increased immensely recently. In Ireland, around 70% of land area is used for agriculture, mostly pasture-based livestock production. Cattle numbers began to decline in the late 1990s, as milk productivity per cow increased along with the European Union policy of intensification implemented in 1998. Phasing out of the EU milk quota system from 2011 onwards initiated an increase in dairy cow numbers, which rose by 46% by 2020. This development has reversed environmental progress. This study outlines the impact of contrasting policies that have contributed to abatement and intensification of greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions from Ireland's agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector, along with impacts on water quality effects. Ireland achieved most environmental targets during the 2000s. However, between 2010 and 2019, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions increased by 12% and annual ammonia emission ceilings exceeded the national limit in seven of those years. Around 6% of rivers lost their good or high ecological water quality status. These developments jeopardise compliance with contemporary environmental targets, such as achieving a 25% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture by 2030, and AFOLU climate neutrality by 2050. Achieving environmental quality targets will necessitate far-reaching and immediate development of policy for the land use sector beyond the implementation of currently proposed mitigation measures.