Space heating demand in the office building stock: Element-based bottom-up archetype model

Energy efficiency in buildings is a key objective of the European energy strategy. To address the limited knowledge of the thermal performance of the non-domestic building stocks, this paper presents a bottom-up, physics-based, archetypal model derived from a large building stock database and physical characteristics from 2170 building energy performance certificates in Switzerland. The model was validated by measured energy consumption data and national statistics. Results highlight the potential for energy retrofit: most of the stock is still heated with fossil fuels (67% of the total heated area) and 40% of the total envelope surface has a poor thermal performance associated with the period before 1980. We estimate national final energy demand for heating of the office building stock (11.3 PJ/year) and present detailed breakdown of energy by thermal loss element. Significant differences were found between archetypes related to urban settings (specific demand 50% higher in rural than in urban contexts) and age of the buildings (56% of the total demand is due to buildings constructed before 1970). The physical model highlights the impact of architectural design characteristics such as building compactness and glazed surface ratios on thermal performance. The model represents an important step for studies on optimal thermal retrofit pathways.