THE LIFECYCLE OF SECESSION Interactions, processes and predictions

Secession is one of the core problems in world politics, and has been a primary cause of intrastate and interstate conflict over the last two centuries. This chapter provides a synthesis of the literature on the political economy of secession, integrating insights across several fields, and proposes a new approach focused on the ‘lifecycle of secession’. In the course of discussing the stages in this lifecycle, we also recommend replacing the prior focus on ‘greed’ and ‘grievance’, which has guided the field for many years, with a more encompassing and constructive classification of theories centered on the ‘means’ and ‘motives’ behind self-determination and secession. Motives – both material and affective – fashion the demand for self-determination movements, and thus shape their emergence, while means (resources and opportunities) enable these movements to consolidate, escalate and gain recognition. This chapter’s approach also underlines the essential interactions between means and motives – and their relative importance during each stage of the lifecycle – in producing mobilization and contentious collective action. Finally, we suggest that future research should place greater emphasis on prediction. Conceptualizing secession as a process rather than as a one-off event reveals how these interactions between means and motives operate and could improve prediction for different phases in the lifecycle of self-determination movements, from latency and emergence through consolidation and violent escalation all the way up to international recognition.