Prognostic value of virtual portal pressure gradient response in compensated cirrhotic patients treated with carvedilol

Aim: This study aimed to assess the prognostic significance of virtual portal pressure gradient (vPPG) response to carvedilol in patients with compensated cirrhosis (CC). Methods: Compensated cirrhosis patients with high- risk varices were prospectively enrolled to receive carvedilol for prevention of first variceal hemorrhage (VH) and followed up for 1 year. The vPPG response was defined as a reduction of vPPG >10% from baseline after 1-month therapy. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors for vPPG response and first decompensation, respectively. Competitive risk models were constructed to predict disease progression, and validated using the C-index, Kaplan-Meier analysis, competitive risk analysis, and calibration curves. Results: A total of 129 patients completed this study, of whom 56 (43.4%) achieved vPPG response and were referred as vPPG responders. Baseline vPPG, red color sign, Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, serum monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), and laminin levels significantly correlated with vPPG response, which itself was further documented as an independent predictor of VH, ascites, and overall decompensation events in CC. Moreover, the red color sign or ChildTurcotte-Pugh score effectively predicted VH, while ascites correlated well with portal flow velocity or MCP-1. The predictive models for VH and ascites showed a good discrimination with C-index values of 0.747 and 0.689 respectively, and the high consistency on calibration curves. Conclusion: The vPPG response could be used as a noninvasive tool for prediction of disease progression in patients with CC.