The association of FGF-21 with the risk of newly diagnosed type-2 diabetes mellitus: a cross-sectional study in Southern China

Background This study investigated the relationship between fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF-21) and newly diagnosed type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods In this cross-sectional study, FGF-21 and T2DM risk were analyzed using restricted cubic splines with univariate or multivariate logistic regression analysis. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated via logistic regression analysis. Cluster and subgroup analyses were conducted to evaluate the associations between FGF-21 and diabetes in different subpopulations. Nomograms and ROC curves were used to explore the clinical utility of FGF-21 in the diabetes assessment model. Results High levels of FGF-21 were significantly associated with a high risk of T2DM after adjusting for confounding factors in both the total population and subpopulations (P for trend < 0.001). In the total population, the ORs of diabetes with increasing FGF-21 quartiles were 1.00 (reference), 1.24 (95% CI 0.56–2.80; quartile 2), 2.47 (95% CI 1.18–5.33; quartile 3), and 3.24 (95% CI 1.53–7.14; quartile 4) in Model 4 (P < 0.001), and the trend was consistent in different subpopulations. In addition, compared with the model constructed with conventional noninvasive indicators, the AUC of the model constructed by adding FGF-21 was increased from 0.668 (95% CI: 0.602–0.733) to 0.715 (95% CI: 0.654–0.777), indicating that FGF-21 could significantly improve the risk-assessment efficiency of type-2 diabetes. Conclusion This study demonstrated that a high level of circulating FGF-21 was positively correlated with diabetes, and levels of FGF-21 could be an important biomarker for the assessment of diabetes risk.