SARS-CoV-2 omicron spike simulations: broad antibody escape, weakened ACE2 binding, and modest furin cleavage

The recent emergence of the omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus with large numbers of mutations has raised concern about a potential new surge in infections. Here we use molecular dynamics to study the biophysics of the interface of the BA1 and BA2 omicron spike protein binding to (i) the ACE2 receptor protein, (ii) antibodies from all known binding regions, and (iii) the furin binding domain. Our simulations suggest that while there is a significant reduction of antibody (Ab) binding strength corresponding to escape, the omicron spikes pay a cost in terms of weaker receptor binding as measured by interfacial hydrogen bonds (H-bond). The furin cleavage domain (FCD) is the same or weaker binding than the delta variant, suggesting lower fusogenicity resulting in less viral load and disease intensity than the delta variant. IMPORTANCE The BA1 and BA2 and closely related BA2.12.2 and BA.5 omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 dominate the current global infection landscape. Given the high number of mutations, particularly those which will lead to antibody escape, it is important to establish accurate methods that can guide developing health policy responses that identify at a fundamental level whether omicron and its variants are more threatening than its predecessors, especially delta. The importance of our work is to demonstrate that simple in silico simulations can predict biochemical binding details of the omicron spike protein that have epidemiological consequences, especially for binding to the cells and for fusing the viral membrane with the cells. In each case, we predicted weaker binding of the omicron spike, which agreed with subsequent experimental results. Future virology experiments will be needed to test these predictions further.