Identification and Attribution of Weekly Periodic Biases in Epidemiological Time Series Data

COVID-19 data exhibit various biases, not least a significant weekly periodic oscillation observed globally in case and death data. There has been significant debate over whether this may be attributed to weekly socialising and working patterns, or is due to underlying biases in the reporting process. We characterise the weekly biases globally and demonstrate that equivalent biases also occur in the current cholera outbreak in Haiti. By comparing published COVID-19 time series to retrospective datasets from the United Kingdom (UK) that are not subject to the same reporting biases, we demonstrate that this dataset does not contain any weekly periodicity, and hence the weekly trends observed both in the UK and globally may be fully explained by biases in the testing and reporting processes. These conclusions play an important role in forecasting healthcare demand and determining suitable interventions for future infectious disease outbreaks. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement K.G acknowledges funding from the EPSRC CDT in Sustainable Approaches to Biomedical Science: Responsible and Reproducible Research - SABS:R3 (EP/S024093/1). R.C. acknowledges funding from a doctoral training partnership studentship in the Department of Computer Science at the University of Oxford. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The study only used openly available human data that were originally located at: I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes All data used in the study are available at: All data analysis is available at: