Generational Divide in Preferences for Forest Carbon Sequestration vs Preservation of Agricultural Landscapes

Abstract Afforestation is considered an important measure for climate change mitigation. As land area that can be used for tree planting serves multiple purposes, it is vital to strike the right balance between climate and other objectives. We conducted a national survey in Norway to infer potential land use conflicts that may arise from executing a large-scale afforestation program. Citizens were presented three land use alternatives to replace formerly grazed agriculture land. We used manipulated landscape photos to illustrate policy impacts to the respondents and employed a combination of multiple correspondence analysis and a latent class regression model to reveal preference heterogeneity. Respondents cluster into three latent classes according to their value orientation, where approximately 20%, 40% and 40% citizens perceive forest carbon sequestration, agriculture, and recreation, respectively, as the most important land use functions to retain. Birth cohort is a strong predictor of the class membership: there is a stark generational difference between the baby boomers (born before 1960) and the generations born after 1980, with the baby boomers overwhelmingly supporting the continuation of agricultural landscapes. However, every ten-year reduction in respondent age increases the odds of a respondent belonging to the recreation- or forestation-preferring class (relative to the agriculture class) by factors of 1.9 and 1.4, respectively. Natural forests were perceived more favorably than mono-culture spruce plantation even among the respondents classified as the most climate concerned.