Declining use of clean cooking fuels & food security in 2022: Downstream impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war in a Kenyan informal urban settlement

Energy market turmoil due to the Russian-Ukrainian war increased global fuel/food prices. While risks to energy and food security have been suggested, little research has documented impacts for the most vulnerable. During September-October 2022, surveys were administered to 701 households using pay-as-you-go liquefied petroleum gas (PAYG LPG) for clean cooking in an informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya. Paired t-tests compared PAYG LPG consumption/payment behaviors before (July-October 2021) and during a >15% inflationary food price period (July-October 2022). Three-quarters (74%; %; n=520) of all households and 94% of food insecure households (n=393; 54% of sample) changed their dietary behavior (changed foods cooked, skipped more meals, and/or reduced PAYG LPG consumption) in 2022. Between July-October 2021 and 2022, PAYG LPG prices increased by 16% (214 Kenyan Shilling (KSh)/kg ($1.53USD/kg) to 249 KSh/kg ($1.78USD/kg) and households reduced their monthly PAYG LPG expenditure by 79% (856 KSh ($6.07USD) to 184 KSh ($1.31USD)). Although 97% of participants continued using PAYG LPG in July-October 2022, average consumption declined by two-thirds (0.82 to 0.27 kg/capita/month; difference(paired-t):-0.28 95%CI:[-0.36,-0.21]). Higher food and LPG prices in 2022 led to substantial declines in food security and LPG consumption in an informal urban settlement, highlighting increased obstacles to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Highlights Synopsis Using smart meter data, this study illustrates that LPG consumption for cooking dropped by two-thirds and food insecurity increased in an informal urban settlement due to higher food costs in 2022. ### Competing Interest Statement Mark O'Keefe is co-founder and Product Manager at PayGo Energy. His employment at PayGo Energy had no impact on interpretation of the data. ### Funding Statement This work was funded by the Sustainable Energy Transitions Initiative early-stage research grant as part of the Environment for Development (EfD) program (Matthew Shupler, Helen Hoka Osiolo). ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: Ethical approval for this study was obtained from the Kenya Medical Research Institute Scientific and Ethics Review Unit, the National Commission for Science, Technology and Innovation (NACOSTI) of Kenya and the University of Liverpool Central Ethics Committee. Informed verbal consent was received from all participants prior to initiating the surveys. I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes All data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors