Baseline scenario modelling for low emissions development in Ethiopia's energy sector

This paper discusses the development of Business-as-usual (BAU) and low-emission scenarios for the energy sector in Ethiopia. This is done as part of efforts by the government to develop a Long-term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) for the country. The process is conducted in consultation with key public and private sectors and civil society stakeholders. The overarching aim of the government is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the country in line with its commitment to the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement. Keeping the global average temperature increases well below 2 Celsius is essential for a country like Ethiopia, given its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Other actions taken in this regard are the development and update of the Country's National Determined Contribution (NDC), which sets the ambitious goal of tackling the effects of climate change by achieving a 68% emissions reduction by 2030. The BAU scenario is expected to inform the development of mitigation scenarios backed by policy actions that will ultimately lead to a decrease in emissions in the energy sector, looking towards the target year of 2050. The result of the LT-LEDS BAU scenario points to a pathway that will lead to the increase of emissions to 31 MtCO2e by 2050, while the proposed mitigation scenarios decrease emissions to 2.9 Mt by 2050.