Noninvasive prediction of insufficient biochemical response after ursodeoxycholic acid treatment in patients with primary biliary cholangitis based on pretreatment nonenhanced MRI

Objectives To explore the feasibility of pretreatment nonenhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in predicting insufficient biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Methods From January 2009 to April 2022, consecutive PBC patients who were treated with UDCA and underwent nonenhanced MRI within 30 days before treatment were retrospectively enrolled. All MR images were independently evaluated by two blinded radiologists. Uni- and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to develop a predictive model for 12-month insufficient biochemical response. Model performances were evaluated by computing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. Results A total of 74 patients (50.6 ± 11.9 years; 62 females) were included. Three pretreatment MRI features, including hepatomegaly (odds ratio [OR]: 4.580; p = 0.011), periportal hyperintensity on T2-weighted imaging (T2WI) (OR: 4.795, p = 0.008), and narrowing of the bile ducts (OR: 3.491; p = 0.027) were associated with 12-month insufficient biochemical response in the multivariable analysis. A predictive model based on the above indicators had an AUC of 0.781, sensitivity of 85.4%, and specificity of 61.5% for predicting insufficient biochemical response. Conclusions A noninvasive model based on three pretreatment MRI features could accurately predict 12-month insufficient biochemical response to UDCA in patients with PBC. Early identification of PBC patients at increased risk for insufficient response can facilitate the timely initiation of additional treatment. Clinical relevance statement A noninvasive predictive model constructed by incorporating three pretreatment MRI features may help identify patients with primary biliary cholangitis at high risk of insufficient biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid and facilitate the timely initiation of additional treatment. Key Points • Noninvasive imaging features based on nonenhanced pretreatment MRI may predict an insufficient biochemical response to UDCA in PBC patients. • A combined model based on three MRI features (hepatomegaly, periportal hyperintensity on T2-weighted imaging, and narrowing of the bile ducts) further improved the predictive efficacy for an insufficient biochemical response to UDCA in PBC patients, with high sensitivity and specificity. • The nomogram of the combined model showed good calibration and predictive efficacy for an insufficient biochemical response to UDCA in PBC patients. In particular, the calibration curve visualised the clinical applicability of the prediction model.