Modeling the influence of land cover dynamics on spatio-temporal variations in land surface temperature in Cagayan de Oro River basin, Mindanao, Philippines

The onset of agricultural intensification and urban expansion in Cagayan de Oro River basin has been continuously changing its landscape over the years. While it undergoes modifications its land cover, its associated impact on the land surface temperature over the years has not been evaluated. This study aims to model the spatio-temporal dynamics of land cover (2003–2020) and determine its influence on the land surface temperature variations in Cagayan de Oro River basin, Mindanao, Philippines from 2003 to 2020 using geographical information systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Significant changes were observed in annual and perennial croplands which experienced substantial increases and is preceded by built-up areas. Considerable decreases were however recorded in shrubland, grassland, mangroves, and open forest. Between 2003 and 2020, the mean land surface temperature in Cagayan de Oro River basin increased by 5.48 ℃. The results indicate that built-up areas and bareland consistently recorded the highest mean LST values, while water bodies, mangroves, and forest cover had the lowest temperatures. This study promotes evidence-based decision-making for sustainable land use planning and management to mitigate the increasing land surface temperature in Cagayan de Oro River basin.