Thymidine kinase 1 appears to be a marker for the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma based on a large-scale, multicenter study

Introduction The aim of this study was to investigate the role of thymidine kinase 1 (TK1) levels in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prognosis and to develop a nomogram for predicting HCC prognosis. Method In this study, 1066 HCC patients were enrolled between August 2018 and April 2022. TK1 levels were measured within one week before enrollment, and the relationship with HCC prognosis was evaluated. Next, all patients were randomly assigned to the training set (70%, n = 746) and the validation set (30%, n = 320). We used multivariate Cox analysis to find independent prognostic factors in the training set to construct a nomogram. The predictive power of the nomogram was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The optimal critical value of TK1 was determined as 2.35 U/L using X-tile software. Result Before and after propensity score matching (PSM), the median overall survival (mOS) of the low-TK1 group (< 2.35 U/L) remained significantly longer than that of the high-TK1 group (≥ 2.35 U/L) (48.1 vs 16.5 months, p < 0.001; 75.7 vs 19.8 months, p = 0.001). Moreover, multivariate Cox analysis showed that the low TK1 level was an independent positive prognostic indicator. Additionally, the area under the ROC curve for predicting the 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year survival rates was 0.770, 0.758, and 0.805, respectively. Conclusions TK1 could serve as a prognostic marker for HCC. In addition, the nomogram showed good predictive capability for HCC prognosis.