Urban land cover and El Nino events negatively impact population viability of an endangered North American songbird

Population dynamics of migratory species are influenced by land use and climate patterns experienced across the full annual cycle. Identifying environmental factors influencing productivity, survival, and their relative contributions to abundance and population growth is critical for the recovery and management of at-risk species in the face of continuing global change. The golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) is an endangered passerine that breeds exclusively in the mixed Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei)-oak (Quercus) woodlands of Central Texas, USA, and winters at high elevations in Central America. We evaluated the effects of precipitation, climate, and land cover on golden-cheeked warbler productivity, adult male survival, and territory abundance using data from a long-term monitoring site, the Balcones Canyonlands Preserve, in Austin, Texas. We jointly analyzed annual productivity, mark-recapture, and territory count data collected on 10 plots from 2011 to 2019 in an integrated population model. The number of young fledged per male territory was negatively related to percent urban land cover within 1 km of monitoring plots, and adult male survival was negatively related to a strong El Nino event. Estimates of population growth and abundance indicated a decline in abundance across our study period. We forecasted population viability 25 years into the future given increases in urban development and frequency of El Nino events. Quasi-extinction probability increased from 0.17 under current urban land cover conditions and El Nino frequency to 0.41 under the scenario of a 10% increase in urban development around all plots and an increase in El Nino frequency. Productivity and adult survival were positively correlated with population growth, highlighting the need for conservation and management actions to maximize these vital rates on the breeding grounds and range-wide.