A nomogram for predicting lateral lymph node metastasis in cN0 unifocal papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

Background Identifying risk factors for occult lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) can provide valuable insights into the necessity of lateral neck dissection (LND). The objective of this study was to develop a nomogram for predicting the probability of LLNM in patients with cN0 unifocal PTMC. Methods We conducted a retrospective analyzed a total of 4872 patients with cN0 unifocal PTMC who were treated at our center from January 2013 to June 2018. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for LLNM, and a nomogram was constructed based on these risk factors. Results The rate of LLNM was 3.2%. Tumors located in the upper lobe(odds ratio [OR] = 2.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.80–3.62; p < 0.001) and size greater than 7 mm (OR = 2.59, 95% CI 1.85–3.62; p < 0.001) had a significantly higher risk of LLNM compared to tumors in the lower or middle lobe and size less than or equal to 7 mm. Tumors with extrathyroidal extension (ETE) had a significantly higher risk of LLNM (OR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.01–1.99; p = 0.044). The presence of three or more central lymph node metastases (CLNMs) (OR = 5.84, 95% CI 3.83–8.93; p < 0.001) or one or two CLNMs (OR = 2.91, 95% CI 1.93–4.42; p < 0.001) also increased the risk of LLNM compared to having no CLNMs. A nomogram incorporating these risk factors was developed, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve demonstrated an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.777, indicating a high degree of predictive accuracy. Conclusion Tumor location in the upper lobe, greater than 7 mm in size, ETE, and CLNMs, especially three or more, were independent risk factors for LLNM in cN0 unifocal PTMC. The nomogram based on these factors exhibited favorable predictive value and consistency.