Two pandemics: the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on future AMR collaboration in Europe

Based on 117 responses to a web survey in 29 European countries and interviews with bureaucrats in managerial positions, this paper investigates how people working professionally with antimicrobial resistance (AMR) assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their future long-run cooperation in the struggle against AMR, both within their own country and among the European countries. We measure whether the severity level of the AMR problem, cumulative COVID-19 death rates, and the daily number of confirmed new COVID-19 cases in their own countries have affected bureaucrats’ beliefs about long-run AMR collaboration. We find that around 40% of the bureaucrats believe that the cooperation will increase domestically and at the European level, indicating that global health crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic can shape future collaboration across the European countries when it comes to the equally global but more long-run health problem, AMR. However, there are considerable differences across regions: Eastern European bureaucrats are clearly the most pessimistic about future cooperation, while the Southern European and Nordic bureaucrats are the most optimistic. Neither the severity of the AMR problem nor the number of confirmed new COVID-19 cases in their own countries has a significant impact on bureaucrats’ beliefs about future collaboration. Instead, it is the cumulative COVID-19 death rate that increases the perceived likelihood of future AMR collaboration, both domestically and among the European countries. Furthermore, our interviews highlight the longer-term impact of the pandemic on public health in the EU countries and the prospect of increased EU control to prevent future cross-border health hazards. The mixed methods approach details both the broader patterns of bureaucrats’ perceptions of the impact of the pandemic on AMR-related work as well as the more long-term institutional changes that are likely to follow in the wake of the pandemic.