Where Does Your News Come From? Predicting Information Pathways in Social Media

As social networks become further entrenched in modern society, it becomes increasingly important to understand and predict how information (e.g., news coverage of a given event) is propagated across social media (i.e., information pathway), which helps the understandings of the impact of real-world information. Thus, in this paper, we propose a novel task, Information Pathway Prediction (IPP), which depicts the propagation paths of a given passage as a community tree (rooted at the information source) on constructed community interaction graphs where we first aggregate individual users into communities formed around news sources and influential users, and then elucidate the patterns of information dissemination across media based on such community nodes. We argue that this is an important and useful task because, on one hand, community-level interactions offer more stability than those at the user level; on the other hand, individual users are often influenced by their community, and modeling community-level information propagation will help the traditional link-prediction problem. To tackle the IPP task, we introduce Lightning, a novel content-aware link prediction GNN model and demonstrate using a large Twitter dataset consisting of all COVID related tweets that Lightning outperforms state-of-the-art link prediction baselines by a significant margin.