Association of variability in metabolic parameters with the incidence of type 2 diabetes: evidence from a functional community cohort

Background To investigate the association of variability in metabolic parameters such as total cholesterol concentrations (TC), uric acid (UA), body mass index (BMI), visceral adiposity index (VAI) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) and whether variability in these metabolic parameters has additive effects on the risk of T2D. Methods Based on the Beijing Functional Community Cohort, 4392 participants who underwent three health examinations (2015, 2016, and 2017) were followed up for incident T2D until the end of 2021. Variability in metabolic parameters from three health examinations were assessed using the coefficient of variation, standard deviation, variability independent of the mean, and average real variability. High variability was defined as the highest quartile of variability index. Participants were grouped according to the number of high-variability metabolic parameters. Cox proportional hazards models were performed to assess the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for incident T2D. Results During a median follow-up of 3.91 years, 249 cases of incident T2D were identified. High variability in TC, BMI, VAI and SBP was significantly associated with higher risks of incident T2D. As for UA, significant multiplicative interaction was found between variability in UA and variability in other four metabolic parameters for incident T2D. The risk of T2D significantly increased with the increasing numbers of high-variability metabolic parameters. Compared with the group with low variability for 5 parameters, the HR (95% CI) for participants with 1–2, 3, 4–5 high-variability metabolic parameters were 1.488 (1.051, 2.107), 2.036 (1.286, 3.222) and 3.017 (1.549, 5.877), respectively. Similar results were obtained in various sensitivity analyses. Conclusions High variability of TC, BMI, VAI and SBP were independent predictors of incident T2D, respectively. There was a graded association between the number of high-variability metabolic parameters and incident T2D.