Mortality Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Attributable to Ozone in China: 2019 vs 2050

Environmental science & technology(2023)

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摘要
Therehas been limited research on the mortality burdenof long-term ozone exposure on cardiovascular disease using a Chinesepopulation-based concentration-response curve. This study reportshundreds of thousands of premature cardiovascular disease deaths attributableto ozone, even a under sustainable and green pathway in 2050. Dueto a combination of lifestyle risk factors, the burden of cardiovasculardisease (CVD) has been increasing in China, affecting an estimated330 million people. Environmental risk factors can exacerbate theserisks or independently contribute to CVD. Ozone is an overlooked andinvisible risk factor, and it plays a significant role in the developmentof CVD. Our study provides a novel quantification of the ozone-attributableCVD mortality burden based on daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrationduring May to October (6mDMA8) in Chinese adults in 2050, projectedunder Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585 and 126, and using the updatedWHO air quality guideline level. The study also considers the contributionsmade by changes in ozone exposure, population aging, population size,and baseline death rates of CVD between 2019 and 2050. While adoptinga sustainable and green pathway (SSP 126) can reduce the projectedmagnitude of premature CVD deaths to 359,200 in 2050, it may not besufficient to reduce the CVD mortality burden significantly. Therefore,it is crucial to implement strategies for stricter ozone control andreducing the baseline death rate of CVD to mitigate the impacts ofozone on Chinese adults.
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关键词
cardiovascular disease,environmental risk,premature deaths,diseaseburden,climate change
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