Will transit recover? A retrospective study of nationwide ridership in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Although the COVID-19 pandemic highly impacted transit ridership as people reduced or stopped travel, these changes occurred at different rates in different regions across the United States. This study explores the impacts of COVID-19 on ridership and recovery trends for all federally funded transit agencies in the United States from January 2020 to June 2022. The findings of this analysis show that overall transit ridership hit a 100-year low in 2020. Changepoint analysis revealed that June 2021 marked the beginning of the recovery for transit ridership in the United States. However, even by June 2022, rail and bus ridership were only about two-thirds of the pre-pandemic levels in most metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Only in a handful of MSAs like Tampa and Tucson did rail ridership reach or exceed 2019 ridership. This retrospective study concludes with a discussion of some longer-term changes likely to continue to impact ridership, such as increased telecommuting and operator shortages, as well as some opportunities, such as free fares and increased availability of bus lanes. The findings of this study can help inform agencies about their performance compared to their peers and highlight general challenges facing the transit industry.