Anti-inflammatory effects of dexamethasone in COVID-19 patients: Translational population PK/PD modeling and simulation

Dexamethasone (DEX) given at a dose of 6 mg once-daily for 10 days is a recommended dosing regimen in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring oxygen therapy. We developed a population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PopPK/PD) model of DEX anti-inflammatory effects in COVID-19 and provide simulations comparing the expected efficacy of four dosing regimens of DEX. Nonlinear mixed-effects modeling and simulations were performed using Monolix Suite version 2021R1 (Lixoft, France). Published data for DEX PK in patients with COVID-19 exhibited moderate variability with a clearance of about half that in healthy adults. No accumulation of the drug was expected even with daily oral doses of 12 mg. Indirect effect models of DEX inhibition of TNFa, IL-6, and CRP plasma concentrations were enacted and simulations performed for DEX given at 1.5, 3, 6, and 12 mg daily for 10 days. The numbers of individuals that achieved specified reductions in inflammatory biomarkers were compared among the treatment groups. The simulations indicate the need for 6 or 12 mg daily doses of DEX for 10 days for simultaneous reductions in TNFa, IL-6, and CRP. Possibly beneficial is DEX given at a dose of 12 mg compared to 6 mg. The PopPK/PD model may be useful in the assessment of other anti-inflammatory compounds as well as drug combinations in the treatment of cytokine storms.