Capturing twenty years of change in ecosystem services provided by coastal Massachusetts habitats.

Accounting for ecosystem services across expansive and diverse landscapes presents unique challenges to managers tasked with navigating and synthesizing the social-ecological dynamics of varied stakeholder interests and ecological functions. One approach to this challenge is through expert based matrices that provide valuations for specific service-habitat combinations. In this study, we combine a literature review with local expert input to build an ecosystem service capacity matrix for the Massachusetts Bays National Estuary Partnership (MassBays). We then apply this matrix to a custom conglomerate land cover data set and a habitat connectivity analysis to assess the spatial and temporal dynamics in select ecosystem services of coastal habitats across MassBays from 1996 to 2016. In 1996, saltmarsh was the primary provider of coastal ecosystem services, representing roughly 60% of the total service capacity. More specifically, high elevation saltmarsh was top-ranked, followed by tidal flats, seagrass, low elevation saltmarsh and unclassified saltmarsh. This distribution of service provisioning varied considerably among the five regions of MassBays, reflecting the unique habitat mixes and local expert valuations of each. Although saltmarsh dominated the overall production of services, seagrass and tidal flats drove 97% of the service changes that occurred from one year to the next. From 1996 to 2016, MassBays lost 50% of its seagrass cover and gained 20% more tidal flats, resulting in a 5% overall loss in ecosystem services. Again, this varied among the five regions, with Cape Cod losing as much as 12% of a given service while the Upper North Shore gained 4% in services overall. We bootstrapped the analysis to provide a range of probable outcomes. We also mapped the changes in service production for each of the sixty-eight embayments. This analysis will aid local managers in accounting for ecosystem services as they develop management plans for their represented stakeholders.