Comparison of different modeling approaches for prescription opioid use and its association with adverse events.

Previous research linking opioid prescribing to adverse drug events failed to properly account for the time-varying nature of opioid exposure. This study aimed to explore how the risk of opioid-related emergency department visits, re-admissions or deaths (composite outcome) varies with opioid dose and duration, comparing different novel modeling techniques. A prospective cohort of 1,511 hospitalized patients discharged from two McGill-affiliated hospitals in Montreal, 2014-2016, was followed from the first post-discharge opioid dispensation until one year post-discharge. Marginal structural Cox proportional hazards models (MSM Cox) and their flexible extensions were used to explore the association between time-varying opioid use and the composite outcome. Weighted cumulative exposure (WCE) models assessed cumulative effects of past use and explored how its impact depends on the recency of exposure. The patient mean age was 69.6 years (SD = 10.3), 57.7% were male. In MSM analyses current opioid use was associated with a 71% increase in the hazard of opioid-related adverse events (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 1.71, 95% CI (1.21 - 2.43). The WCE results suggested that the risk cumulates over the past 50 days of opioid consumption. Flexible modeling techniques helped assess how the risk of opioid-related adverse events may be associated with time-varying opioid exposures while accounting for non-linear relationships and the recency of past use.