Distribution, driving forces, and risk assessment of 2-MIB and its producer in a drinking water source-oriented shallow lake

Freshwater blooms of harmful cyanobacteria in drinking water source-oriented shallow lakes affect public health and ecosystem services worldwide. Therefore, identifying 2-methylisoborneol (2-MIB)-producing cyanobacteria and predicting the risks of 2-MIB are critical for managing 2-MIB–infected water sources. Previous studies on the potential producers and risks of 2-MIB have focused on reservoirs or have been limited by the ecosystems of phytoplankton-dominated areas. We investigated the producers, distribution, and occurrence of 2-MIB in East Taihu Lake—a drinking water source-oriented shallow lake with macrophyte- and phytoplankton-dominated areas—from August 2020 to November 2021. We observed that Pseudanabaena sp. produces 2-MIB in this lake, as determined by the maximum correlation coefficient ( R = 0.71, p < 0.001), maximum detection rate, and minimum false positive/negative ratio exhibited by this genus. Extreme odor events occurred in this lake during late summer and early autumn in 2021, with the mean 2-MIB concentration increasing to 727 ± 426 ng/L and 369 ± 176 ng/L in August and September, respectively. Moreover, the macrophyte-dominated area, particularly the wetland area, exhibited a significant decrease ( p < 0.01) in bloom intensity and 2-MIB production during these extreme odor events. Pseudanabaena sp. outbreak was likely owing to eutrophication, seasonal gradients, and macrophyte reduction, considering that temporal trends were consistent with high water temperature, high total phosphorus levels, and low-light conditions. Moreover, 2-MIB production was sensitive to short-term hydrometeorological processes, with high water levels and radiant intensity enhancing 2-MIB production. The risk assessment results showed that the probability of 2-MIB concentration exceeding the odor threshold (10 ng/L) is up to 90% when the cell density of Pseudanabaena sp. reaches 1.8 × 10 7 cell/L; this risk is reduced to 50 and 25% at densities of < 3.8 × 10 5 cell/L and 5.6 × 10 4 cell/L, respectively. Our findings support calls for shallow lake management efforts to maintain a macrophyte-dominated state and control odorous cyanobacteria growth.