Identifying the impact of land use land cover change on streamflow and nitrate load following modeling approach: a case study in the upstream Dong Nai River basin, Vietnam

Tri An Reservoir is a vital source of water for agriculture, industry, hydropower, and public usage in Southern Vietnam. Due to human activities, water eutrophication has become a serious problem in recent decades. This study investigated for the first time the impact of land use and land cover (LULC) change on streamflow and nitrate load from the upstream Dong Nai River basin, which is the largest watershed of the reservoir. The study utilized several LULC scenarios, including LULC 2000, 2010, and 2020. The SWAT model was applied to model the watershed during the period 1997–2009. Results showed that the hydrological model performed satisfactorily based on the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient, the root mean square error observations standard deviation ratio (RSR), and the percent bias (PBIAS). The average simulated values of monthly streamflow and nitrate load were 453.7, 450.0, 446.7 m 3 /s and 17,699.43, 17,869.13, 17,590.81 tonnes for the LULC 2000, 2010, and 2020 scenarios, respectively. There were no significant differences in streamflow and nitrate load at the basin level under the different LULC scenarios. However, when looking at the subbasin level, there were differences in nitrate load among the scenarios. This suggests that the impacts of LULC on nitrate load may be more pronounced at smaller scales. Overall, our finding underscores the importance of modeling techniques in predicting the impacts of LULC change on streamflow and water quality, which can ultimately aid in the sustainable management of water resources.