Ultra-short-term multi-step probability interval prediction of photovoltaic power: A framework with time-series-segment feature analysis

Solar Energy(2023)

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摘要
•A multi-step PI prediction method based on feature analysis was proposed.•Three new indicators were constructed to extract the features of fluctuations.•Optimal membership search was used to curb the decaying accuracy of prediction.•Prediction method based on fluctuation types improved the prediction performance.
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关键词
Photovoltaic power prediction, Probability interval prediction, Fuzzy C-means clustering, Deep recurrent neural network, Gaussian process regression
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