Spatiotemporal Variability of Alpine Meadow Aboveground Biomass and Sustainable Grazing in Light of Climate Warming

Understanding spatiotemporal variability of aboveground biomass (AGB) in alpine grassland ecosystems is required to better formulate sustainable grazing strategies, especially in climate-sensitive areas such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Drawing from recent modeling results, we analyzed spatial variability in grassland AGB over seasonal and annual timescales. Theoretical livestock carrying capacity (LCC) was predicted in relation to projected warming and simulated pika disturbance. We found that elevation and slope were key determinants of the distribution of AGB and its change. Although grasses and shrubs occupied an equivalent area, the latter generated approximately double the amount of total biomass, but the former generated slightly more available biomass. Although pika habitat extended over 45.3% of the study area, the impacts of pika only reduced the total available AGB (AGBV) by < 0.07%. The actual LCC (2.16 SU · ha−1 [sheep unit per hectare]) of the study area was lower than the theoretical LCC (2.77−2.96 SU · ha−1). Under climate warming scenarios of 1.0°C, 1.5°C, and 2.0°C, the actual LCC can be increased by 0.82-1.25, 0.99-1.53, and 0.77−1.23 SU · ha−1, respectively. Although systematic climate warming increased AGB, impacts were especially marked at lower elevations and on north-facing slopes because of higher soil water availability. Results highlight that rather than implementing LCC in a static manner in light of climate warming, deeper understanding of biomass availability and the combined effects of climate change and topographic heterogeneity is required to support better management of grasslands.