Following up on flood adaptation in Québec households four years later: A prospective exploratory study

The frequency and severity of flooding events are expected to increase with climate change in Canada's province of Québec. Highly publicized flooding events ravaged the province's waterfront communities in 2017 and 2019, with dire health and economic impacts. A recognized component of integrated flood risk management is the adoption of adaptive behaviors that reduce the vulnerability of exposed households to flooding. A previous study established an index of pre-flood adaptation based on 15 behaviors, using responses of 1951 participants residing within or less than 150 m from officially designated high flood risk zones. 325 of these respondents were successfully recontacted in 2019 for a follow-up survey on their adaptive behaviors, constituting the longitudinal sample used in this study. The new database tracks changes in pre-flood adaptation of Quebecers over a span of 4 years and seeks to establish experiential, socio-demographic, and psychosocial variables that predict the preventive behavior adoption rates four years on. Results suggest that there has been no significant increase in the level of adaptive behavior between 2015 and 2019, though households that have experienced a flood or a flood alert in the past are more likely to adapt than those who have not. Furthermore, the most important measures reported in 2015 for predicting adoption of behaviors four years on are income, the experience of a flood, and the belief that one lives in a flood-prone zone. Finally, a second stepwise regression indicates that a change in flood experience, an increase in perception of the severity of flood impacts on one's residence, and adaptation in 2015 are the strongest predictors of adaptation in 2019. Results from this exploratory longitudinal study provide critical information regarding flood adaptive behavior over a long period of time, and its predictors.