Prognostic nomogram for patients with invasive endocervical adenocarcinoma incorporating HPV E6/E7 mRNA in situ hybridization and clinical characteristics

Abstract Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV) E6/E7 mRNA in situ hybridization (HPV E6/E7 RNAscope) appears to be a sensitive and specific method. We aimed to examine the diagnostic and prognostic utility of this technique in endocervical adenocarcinoma (ECA) and build a useful prognostic nomogram model using this approach. Methods: The model was constructed from a retrospective study of 200 patients with ECA who had undergone surgery at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between 2010 and 2014. The model's predictive efficiency and discriminative capability were defined by a concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. Results: The overall sensitivity and specificity of HPV E6/E7 RNAscope for distinguishing HPV-associated adenocarcinoma (HPVA) from non HPV-associated adenocarcinoma (NHPVA) in the whole cohort were 75.8% and 80%, respectively, compared to 60.2% and 90.0% for p16 immunohistochemistry, 80.5% and 80.0% for HPV DNA, and 63.3% and 50% for HPV genotype. The independent factors derived from multivariable analysis of the whole cohort to predict overall survival (OS) were age, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), lymph node involvement (LNI), and HPV E6/E7 RNAscope, which were all incorporated into the nomogram with (nomogram B) or without (nomogram A) FIGO stage and treatment. The C-index of nomogram A for predicting OS was 0.825 (p = 0.002 and p < 0.001), which was significantly higher than the C-index for FIGO stage (0.653) and treatment (0.578). No significant difference occurred between nomograms A (0.825) and B (0.836). Furthermore, a risk stratification system was established to accurately stratify patients with ECA into two subgroups with significantly different prognosis. Conclusions: HPV E6/E7 RNAscope is highly specific for ECA, and the proposed nomogram using HPV E6/E7 RNAscope showed more accurate outcome in terms of prognosis in patients with ECA.