The Burden of Being Certain: National Identity Certainty Predicts Support for COVID-Related Draconian Measures and Outgroup Conspiracy Beliefs

The COVID-19 pandemic has introduced various controversies. Some people debate about the usage of “draconian” measures of social distancing (e.g., lockdown). Others concern the origin of the pandemic with some buying conspiracy theories that attribute the cause of COVID-19 to the plot of some powerful outgroups. The current research examined national identity certainty (i.e., the certainty people placed in national identity) as predictor of these beliefs and attitudes. Two studies (total N = 625), one longitudinal and one cross-sectional, revealed that individual differences in national identity certainty predicted increased support of draconian measures and increased outgroup conspiracy beliefs. Moreover, realistic (but not symbolic) threat accounted for the increased support for draconian measures. Symbolic (but not realistic) threat accounted for the increased outgroup conspiracy beliefs. Our findings highlight how national identity certainty constrains individuals’ beliefs and attitudes towards issues related to the pandemic.