What fuels the fire? Cooking fuel estimates at global, regional and country level for 1990-2030

Abstract Household air pollution generated from the use of polluting cooking fuels and technologies is a major source of disease and environmental degradation in low- and middle-income countries. Using a novel modelling approach, we provide global, regional and country estimates for 6 specific fuel categories (electricity, gaseous fuels, kerosene, biomass, charcoal, coal) and overall polluting/clean fuel use – from 1990-2020 and with urban/rural disaggregation. Model results show 53% of the global population relied on polluting cooking in 1990, dropping to 36% in 2020. In urban areas, gaseous fuels dominate, with a growing reliance on electricity; in rural populations, high levels of biomass use persist alongside increasing use of gaseous fuels. Future projections of observed trends suggest 31% will still lack access to clean cooking in 2030, and the Sub-Saharan African population relying on polluting fuels is on course to exceed 1 billion by 2025.