Afforestation impact on soil temperature in regional climate model simulations over Europe

Abstract. In the context of the first phase of the Euro-CORDEX Flagship Plot Study (FPS) Land Use and Climate Across Scales (LUCAS), we investigate the afforestation impact on the seasonal cycle of soil temperature over the European continent with an ensemble of ten regional climate models (RCMs). For this purpose, each ensemble member performed two idealized land cover experiments in which Europe is covered either by forests or grasslands. The multi-model mean exhibits a reduction of the annual amplitude of soil temperature (AAST) over all European regions, although this not a robust feature among the models. In Mediterranean, the simulated AAST response to afforestation is between −4 K and +2 K while in Scandinavia the inter-model spread ranges from −7 K to +1 K. We then examine the role of changes in the annual amplitude of ground heat flux (AAGHF) and summer soil moisture content (SMC) in determining the effect of afforestation on AAST response. In contrast with the diverging results in AAST, all the models consistently indicate a widespread AAGHF decrease and summer SMC decline due to afforestation. The AAGHF changes effectively explain the largest part of the inter-model variance in AAST response in most regions, while the changes in summer SMC determine the sign of AAST response within a group of three simulations sharing the same land surface model. Finally, we pair FLUXNET sites to compare the simulated results with observation-based evidence of the impact of forest on soil temperature. In line with models, observations indicate a summer ground cooling in forested areas compared to open lands. The vast majority of models agree with the sign of the observed reduction in AAST, although with a large variation in the magnitude of changes. Overall, we aspire to emphasize the effects of afforestation on soil temperature profile with this study, given that changes in the seasonal cycle of soil temperature potentially perturb crucial biochemical processes. Such perturbations can be of societal relevance as afforestation is proposed as a climate change mitigation strategy.