A Basic Model to Predict Enteric Methane Emission from Dairy Cows and Its Application to Update Operational Models for the National Inventory in Norway

The aim of this study was to develop a basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and to update operational calculations for the national inventory in Norway. Basic models were developed using a database with 63 treatment means from 19 studies. The database included records for enteric CH4 production (MJ/day), dry matter intake (DMI), and dietary nutrient composition. The basic models were evaluated against an external database (n=36, from ten studies) along with other extant models. When evaluated by low root mean square prediction errors and high concordance correlation coefficients, the developed basic models that included DMI, dietary concentrations of fatty acids and neutral detergent fiber performed slightly better in predicting CH4 emissions than extant models. In order to propose country-specific values for the CH4 conversion factor Ym (% of gross energy intake partitioned into CH4) and thus to carry out the national inventory for Norway, the existing operational model was updated for the prediction of Ym over a wide range of feeding situations using energy corrected milk and dietary concentrate share as predictor variables. Input values of Ym were updated based on the results from the basic models. The predicted Ym ranged from 6.22 to 6.72%. In conclusion, the prediction of CH4 production from dairy cows was improved with the help of newly published data, which enabled an update of the operational model for calculating the national inventory of CH4 in Norway.