Internet Search Effort on Covid-19 and the Underlying Public Interventions and Epidemiological Status

Abstract This study aimed to quantify the relative importance of indices of personal freedom, economy, and epidemiology on the public interest on Covid-19 expressed by internet searches on the topic. The relationship between the effective reproduction rate Rt, news media cover, and web search effort was also quantified. Data of online search in Greece on Covid-19 topic for one year were analyzed using indices of social distancing, financial measures, and epidemiological variables using machine learning. Temporal autocorrelation of web search effort was quantified and control charts of web search, Rt, new cases and new deaths were employed. Results indicated that the trained model exhibited a fit of R2 = 91% between the actual and predicted web search effort. The top five variables for predicting web search effort were new deaths, the opening of international borders to non-Greek nationals, new cases, testing policy, and restrictions in internal movements. Web search had negligible temporal autocorrelation between weeks. Web search peaked during the same weeks that the Rt was peaking although new deaths or new cases were not peaking during those dates. The extent to which online searches may reflect the actual epidemiological situation is discussed.