Ethnic context and fertility differential in post-Soviet Kazakhstan

Previous studies have often explained fertility differentials between racial groups by aggregate individual characteristics. Emphasizing a spatial perspective, this study argues that the fertility implications of race may depend on the ethnic composition of the local context. This study tested the explanatory power of contextual ethnic composition, measured by diversity and minority share, with the intriguing case of fertility differentials in post-Soviet Kazakhstan. Multilevel Poisson regressions and decomposition techniques were performed on the pooled 1995 and 1999 Kazakhstan Demographic and Health Surveys. Further sensitivity tests were conducted with the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey-Kazakhstan 2010-2011 and 2015 surveys. We found that both diversity and minority share are significant contributors to the majority-minority fertility differential. Specifically, context-level ethnic diversity is associated with lower fertility (-0.22, p < 0.001) for both Russians and Kazakhs, while a higher share of Russians in the local context reduces the differential between the two groups (-0.26, p < 0.05). Sensitivity test using data from the 2010s reproduced the significant effect of the context-level share of Russians on fertility. The findings suggest that minority individuals exhibit lower fertility levels in places where their presence is more suppressed. This study contributes to population geography's recognition of the importance of spatial and contextual processes in shaping fertility outcomes for racial/ethnic minorities by impacting their living environment.