Spatial and temporal patterns of the sensitivity of radial growth response by Picea schrenkiana to regional climate change in the Tianshan Mountains

Climate change significantly impacts forest ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions. However, spatiotemporal patterns of climate-sensitive changes in individual tree growth under increased climate warming and precipitation in north–west China is unclear. The dendrochronological method was used to study climate response sensitivity of radial growth of Picea schrenkiana from 158 trees at six sites during 1990–2020. The results show that climate warming and increased precipitation significantly promoted the growth of trees. The response to temperature first increased, then decreased. However, the response to increased precipitation and the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) increased significantly. In most areas of the Tianshan Mountains, the proportion of trees under increased precipitation and scPDSI positive response was relatively high. Over time, small-diameter trees were strongly affected by drought stress. It is predicted that under continuous warming and increased precipitation, trees in most areas of the Tianshan Mountains, especially those with small diameters, will be more affected by precipitation.