Trends and variability in methane concentrations over the Southeastern Arabian Peninsula

Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas with an important contribution to global warming. While national and international efforts have been put in place to reduce methane emissions, little is known about its variability, especially in hotspot regions where natural and anthropogenic emissions are compounded. In this study, the current state of CH4 concentrations and their trends over the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and surrounding region are investigated with satellite and reanalysis data. CH4 concentrations have increased over the last 5 years, with a trend in the satellite-derived column values (XCH4) of about 9 ppb/year. A clear annual cycle is detected in XCH4, with an amplitude of up to 75 ppb and peak values in the warmer months. The largest concentrations are found in coastal sites, where sabkhas and landfills are present, and along the Al Hajar mountains, where agricultural activities and microhabitats that may host CH4-producing microbes occur and where advection by the background flow is likely an important contributor. The reanalysis data shows a good agreement with the satellite-derived estimates in terms of the spatial pattern, but the magnitudes are smaller by up to 50 ppb, due to deficiencies in the data assimilated. Surface CH4 concentrations in the reanalysis data account for more than 50% of the corresponding XCH4 values, and exhibit a seasonal cycle with the opposite phase due to uncertainties in the emissions inventory. Our findings provide an overview of the state of CH4 concentration in the UAE and surrounding region, and may aid local authorities to propose the appropriate emission reduction strategies in order to meet the proposed net-zero greenhouse gas emission target by 2050. This study highlights the need for the establishment in the Arabian Peninsula region of a ground-based observational network for greenhouse gas concentrations which is still lacking to date.