Extratropical Cyclone Response to Projected Reductions in Snow Extent over the Great Plains

Extratropical cyclones develop in regions of enhanced baroclinicity and progress along climatological storm tracks. Numerous studies have noted an influence of terrestrial snow cover on atmospheric baroclinicity. However, these studies have less typically examined the role that continental snow cover extent and changes anticipated with anthropogenic climate change have on cyclones' intensities, trajectories, and precipitation characteristics. Here, we examined how projected future poleward shifts in North American snow extent influence extratropical cyclones. We imposed 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile values of snow retreat between the late 20th and 21st centuries as projected by 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) models to alter snow extent underlying 15 historical cold-season cyclones that tracked over the North American Great Plains and were faithfully reproduced in control model cases, providing a comprehensive set of model runs to evaluate hypotheses. Simulations by the Advanced Research version of theWeather Research and Forecast Model (WRF-ARW) were initialized at four days prior to cyclogenesis. Cyclone trajectories moved on average poleward (mu = 27 + / - sigma = 17 km) in response to reduced snow extent while the maximum sea-level pressure deepened (mu = 0.48 + / - sigma = 0.8 hPa) with greater snow removed. A significant linear correlation was observed between the area of snow removed and mean trajectory deviation (r(2) = 0.23), especially in mid-winter (r(2) = 0.59), as well as a similar relationship for maximum change in sea-level pressure (r(2) = 0.17). Across all simulations, 82% of the perturbed simulation cyclones decreased in average central sea-level pressure (SLP) compared to the corresponding control simulation. Near-surface wind speed increased, as did precipitation, in 86% of cases with a preferred phase change from the solid to liquid state due to warming, although the trends did not correlate with the snow retreat magnitude. Our results, consistent with prior studies noting some role for the enhanced baroclinity of the snow line in modulating storm track and intensity, provide a benchmark to evaluate future snow cover retreat impacts on mid-latitude weather systems.