Unpredictable needs are associated with lower expectations of repayment

•Mutual aid allows people to manage various sources of risks.•Some types of mutual aid create debt, while other types of mutual aid do not.•Ranchers expect repayment when needs arise predictably (vs. unpredictably).•The predictability-repayment expectation link generalizes to broader populations.•Attributions of responsibility partially mediate the predictability-repayment link.