Future land use/cover changes and participatory planning

Globally, land use/cover is facing irreversible damages caused by human activities and climate changes. These damages have occurred as a result of land conversions from natural and seminatural areas to anthropogenic uses such as urbanisation and intensive agricultural practices. Land conversions correspond to one of the main environmental threats characterised by a complex interconnection between different dimensions. One of the better approaches to assess these threats is through the creation of effective land-use planning instruments with the support of stakeholders. This can contribute to helping decision-makers to better identify, evaluate and anticipate potential land-use changes. This chapter proposes a conceptual framework to develop a better participatory planning process using complex spatial models and by engaging stakeholders. It is divided into four steps: (1) problem identification (by identifying the case study/stakeholders and establishing a time horizon), (2) future needs (by designing ‘what-if’ scenarios), (3) simulation of scenarios (by using spatially explicit dynamic models to explore future land use and land cover changes) and (4) policy recommendations (by creating land-use strategies). This analysis suggests that more participative planning and more action-oriented territorial development are required.