Numerical Modeling and Data-Worth Analysis for Characterizing the Architecture and Dissolution Rates of a Multicomponent DNAPL Source

A numerical solute transport model was calibrated to a high-resolution monitoring data set to characterize a multicomponent source of nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) and evaluate the uncertainty of estimated parameters. The dissolution of NAPL mass was simulated using SEAM3D with parameter zones including adjustable NAPL saturations and mass transfer coefficients, representing the heterogenous architecture of the source zone. Source zone parameters were simultaneously estimated using PEST from aqueous-phase concentrations measured in a multilevel monitoring transect and from mass recovery rates measured at extraction wells during a controlled field experiment. Data-worth analyses, facilitated by PEST ancillary software, linked maximum aqueous-phase concentrations of all compounds to reductions in the pre-calibration uncertainty of mass transfer coefficients. In turn, decreasing concentrations of the most soluble NAPL fraction constrained the source mass estimation. The accurate estimation of model parameters was possible by removing concentrations measured during early NAPL dissolution stages, identified as drivers of model bias using the iterative ensemble smoother PESTPP-iES. Although uncertainty analyses highlighted model limitations for representing sub-grid-scale heterogeneity of NAPL distribution and mass transfer rates, final stages of NAPL dissolution measured at multilevel ports eliminated parameter bias and produced long-term projections of multi-stage source zone depletion. Including mass discharge rates for model calibration further improved the accuracy of estimated residual source mass, complementing multilevel monitoring constraints on the saturation distribution and mass transfer coefficients.