Predicting Surgical Benefit for Primary Tumor Resection in Patients with Stage IV Colorectal Cancer

Abstract Purpose There exists continuous controversy regarding the effect of primary tumor resection (PTR) for stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Little is known about how to predict the patients’ survival benefit from PTR. This study aimed to develop a tool for surgical benefit prediction. Methods Stage IV CRC patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database were included. After propensity score matching, patients receiving PTR that survived longer than the median cancer-specific survival (CSS) time of those who did not undergo PTR were considered to benefit from surgery. Logistic regression analysis identified prognostic factors influencing the surgical benefit, based on which a nomogram was constructed. A user-friendly webserver was then built for convenient clinical use. The predictive model was assessed using Harrell’s concordance index, calibration plot, receiver operative curve and decision curve analysis. Results The median CSS of the PTR group was 23 months, which was significantly longer than the non-PTR group (12 months, P < 0.001). In the PTR group, 32.9% of patients did not benefit from surgery. Logistic regression analysis identified age, tumor location, CEA level, histological grade, number of distant metastasis, and preoperative chemotherapy independently associated with surgical benefit. The established prognostic nomogram demonstrated satisfactory performance. Conclusion PTR was associated with prolonged survival in stage IV CRC. The proposed nomogram could be used as a risk-to-benefit assessment evidenced-based platform for selecting appropriate patients to undergo PTR.