Model risk scores may underestimate rate of biochemical recurrence in African American men with localized prostate cancer: a cohort analysis of over 3000 men

Introduction This study aims to determine if there is a difference in prostate cancer nomogram-adjusted risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) and/or adverse pathology (AP) between African American (AAM) and Caucasian men (CM) undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP). Methods A retrospective review was performed of men undergoing RP in the Pennsylvania Urologic Regional Collaborative between 2015 and 2021. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to compare the rate of BCR after RP, and logistic regression models were used to compare rates of AP after RP between CM and AAM, adjusting for the CAPRA, CAPRA-S, and MSKCC pre- and post-operative nomogram scores. Results Rates of BCR and AP after RP were analyzed from 3190 and 5029 men meeting inclusion criteria, respectively. The 2-year BCR-free survival was lower in AAM (72.5%) compared to CM (79.0%), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.38 (95% CI 1.16–1.63, p < 0.001). The rate of BCR was significantly greater in AAM compared to CM after adjustment for MSKCC pre-op (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.08–1.53; p = 0.004), and post-op nomograms (HR 1.26; 95% CI 1.05–1.49; p < 0.001). There was a trend toward higher BCR rates among AAM after adjustment for CAPRA (HR 1.13; 95% CI 0.95–1.35; p = 0.17) and CAPRA-S nomograms (HR 1.11; 95% 0.93–1.32; p = 0.25), which did not reach statistical significance. The rate of AP was significantly greater in AAM compared to CM after adjusting for CAPRA (OR 1.28; 95% CI 1.10–1.50; p = 0.001) and MSKCC nomograms (OR 1.23; 95% CI 1.06–1.43; p = 0.007). Conclusion This analysis of a large multicenter cohort provides further evidence that AAM may have higher rates of BCR and AP after RP than is predicted by CAPRA and MSKCC nomograms. Accordingly, AAM may benefit with closer post-operative surveillance and may be more likely to require salvage therapies.