Quantifying the roles of climate, herbivory, topography, and vegetation on tree establishment in the treeline ecotone

The transition zone between the upper forest boundary and the treeless alpine vegetation (i.e., the treeline ecotone) is expected to shift upward in elevation with global warming. Multiple factors in addition to climate are influencing tree establishment, but it is uncertain to what degree. In this study, we took advantage of a unique dataset with field measurements of mountain birch trees acquired from 32 boreal-alpine treeline ecotone sites situated along a 1100-km latitudinal gradient in Norway to investigate the role of climate, herbivory, topography, and vegetation on the establishment success of trees. To represent tree establishment, we recorded occurrence, survival, and height growth of short juvenile birch trees (stem height <= 1 m) as response variables at each site in 2008, 2012, and 2018. We used already available climate and herbivory data, and airborne laser scanning (ALS) and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveyed imagery together with field measurements to compute topography and vegetation explanatory variables per site on microsite scale (approx. 1 m2). We observed a clear decrease in short juvenile birch tree establishment due to livestock herbivory, evidenced by lower occurrence, reduced survival rate, and diminished height growth in treeline ecotones with higher livestock densities. Winter precipitation and the two land cover classes, tree-covered area and lee side vegetation, were also important for tree establishment. However, the direction and magnitude of the relationships depended on the stage of establishment. While winter precipitation can lead to higher tree occurrence, long-term survival is not necessarily ensured, reflecting diverse requirements for optimal conditions of tree establishment. Thus, our results show that occurrence, survival, and height growth of short juvenile birch trees differ in their requirements to climate, topography, and vegetation, but tree establishment is consistently low with livestock herbivory. Overall, our results suggest that treeline ecotones will shift toward higher elevations in areas with little or no livestock herbivory and close to already established trees and in lee sides. Regarding management and conservation issues, our results suggest that free-roaming livestock can reduce tree establishment and hinder treeline ecotone shifts into threatened alpine ecosystems, at least for birch-dominated treelines.